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Much of the gains in the S & P 500 this year can be attributed to the "Magnificent Seven" stocks. The S & P 500 has rocketed nearly 19% in the year to date. His 2024 price target for the S & P 500 is 4,500. But, he said, "There's going to be … a very good stock picking opportunity, probably away from those seven [stocks] … where there should be more opportunities in the 493." "In today's volatile interest rate environment, we see this cohort offering a balance of relative performance stability along with attractive growth properties," Morgan Stanley said.
Persons: Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley, CNBC's, Wilson, they've, , we're, we've, barbells, Eli Lilly, Morgan Organizations: Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Tesla, Morgan, Microsoft Tech, Keysight Financial, Visa, Mastercard Consumer, Marriott International Pharmaceuticals, Walmart, Costco . Utilities, DTE Energy, Exelon Corporation . Energy, ConocoPhillips, Marathon Oil, Valero Energy Locations: U.S, Morgan Stanley Asia, Singapore
Contrary to popular perception, falling inflation and interest rate cuts won't necessarily be good for stocks, according to Morgan Stanley's Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson. And falling inflation is bad for stocks because rising prices are what drives earnings, he explained. "Whenever inflation is falling like it is today, it's typically not good for the average stock because it's not good for earnings growth," Wilson explained. The bad news is that "it's pretty clear" that inflation is falling, he said. "So now that inflation is coming down, and they start cutting, just be careful what that means for stocks.
Persons: Morgan, Mike Wilson, Wilson, Morgan Stanley, we've, It's Organizations: Chief U.S, Equity, U.S . Federal Reserve, Morgan, Big Tech, Meta, Facebook, Apple, Netflix, Walmart, Costco . Utilities, DTE Energy, Exelon Corporation . Energy, ConocoPhillips, Marathon Oil, Valero Energy Locations: Chief, Morgan Stanley Asia, Singapore
Morgan Stanley strategist Mike Wilson sees an eventual earnings recovery for U.S. equities in 2024 — but he sees the S & P 500 rising only to 4,500 over the next 12 months. Wilson, the firm's chief U.S. equity strategist, noted that while the S & P 500 has gained about 15% year to date, the narrow rally has been skewed to the Magnificent Seven. This under-the-surface earnings weakness is forecast to continue into early 2024 before a recovery, he said in a Monday note. "Near-term uncertainty should give way to an earnings recovery as we progress through next year," Wilson said. Wilson has one of the most bearish targets among Wall Street peers in 2023, predicting the broad market index would end the year at 3,900, according to CNBC Pro's Market Strategist Survey .
Persons: Morgan Stanley, Mike Wilson, Wilson, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: CNBC Pro's, Survey
Technical strategist Katie Stockton said that recent stock gains have been "explosive." But falling bond yields should continue to provide a boost to stocks if the pullback persists. The surge in equities, Wilson explained, is mostly a consequence of falling bond yields. Key government bond yields have pulled back sharply from 16-year highs in recent weeks. She said signs flashing in the TLT Treasury ETF point to an extended period of bond yields correcting from recent highs.
Persons: Katie Stockton, Stockton, , November's, Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson, Wilson, JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic Organizations: Service, CNBC Wednesday, TLT Treasury Locations: Stockton, TLT
The stock market's latest rally is set to fizzle, according to JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic. He highlighted a number of looming concerns for investors, from valuations to higher-for-longer interest rates. AdvertisementAdvertisementLast week's stock market rally is about to fizzle, according to JPMorgan's chief global markets strategist Marko Kolanovic. While stock market investors would like to see interest rates drop, the reason behind any potential cut is what matters the most. Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson reiterated his view on Monday that the recent rally in stocks is nothing more than a bear market rally.
Persons: JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic, Kolanovic, , Marko Kolanovic, Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson Organizations: Service, Markets, Federal Reserve Locations: fizzle
The odds of a fourth-quarter rally for the S & P 500 are coming down as higher rates and slower growth pressure equities, according to Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson. The S & P 500 approached its 200-day moving average — around 4,224 — earlier this month. .SPX YTD bar SPX in 2023 Wilson now forecasts the S & P 500 to fall to 3,900 by the end of 2023. According to the CNBC Market Strategist Survey , the average 2023 target for the S & P 500 is at 4,392, with the median target even higher at 4,500. Sean Simonds of UBS is the only other top strategist who forecasts the S & P 500 pulling back to 3,900.
Persons: Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson, Wilson, Stocks, SPX, Sean Simonds, Oppenheimer's John Stoltzfus, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Federal, CNBC Market, Survey, UBS
The hikes scared investors into thinking a recession would be on the way. But today, the labor market remains strong and inflation is under 4%, prompting rosier outlooks about the fate of the US economy. Rate hikes take time to work their way into the economy. But their main adversary going forward is going to be the Fed, with inflation still elevated. The Consumer Price Index is at 3.7% year-over-year, and core inflation, which the Fed watches closely, is even higher at 4.3%.
Persons: Michael Pento, Piper Sandler, Pento, Louis, LEI, Greg Boutle, Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson, Piper Sandler's Michael Kantrowitz, Jeremy Grantham, Merrill Lynch, Gary Shilling, Jerome Powell Organizations: Federal Reserve, Federal Reserve Bank of St, National Federation of Independent Businesses, Conference, Stock, Robeco, Nasdaq, BNP, Fed
Investors would have made more money buying the S&P 500 than following Michael Burry's stock-market warnings, said Charlie Bilello, chief market strategist at Creative Planning. "Simply buying the S&P 500 instead of following Michael Burry's stock market warnings would have made an investor money each time with an average 6-month annualized gain of 34%. He was referring to gains delivered by the benchmark index in the periods that immediately followed a selection of Burry's tweets between 2019 and 2023. AdvertisementAdvertisementThe S&P 500 share index has climbed more than 16% so far in 2023, thanks in no small part to investor excitement over the rise of artificial-intelligence technologies. He's warned of an economic downturn since the first half of 2022, leading him to place a bet with a notional value of $1.6 billion against the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 last quarter.
Persons: Michael Burry's, Charlie Bilello, Burry, Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson, David Rosenberg, OpenAI's ChatGPT, Burry hasn't, He's Organizations: Creative Planning, Service, Asset Management, Federal Reserve, Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Nasdaq Locations: Wall, Silicon
He likes "defensive growth stocks," industrials, and energy stocks. Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson says the stock market's rally is likely running out of steam, and quickly. Also, on technicals, market breadth — or the share of stocks participating in the rally — is still weak. Morgan StanleyIn addition to over-extended technicals, Wilson said deteriorating fundamentals threaten the market. In particular, he's concerned about "real" consumer spending growth — or growth that accounts for inflation — which he and Morgan Stanley economists believe will dip negative year-over-year in the fourth quarter of 2023.
Persons: Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson, Let's, Wilson, Morgan Stanley Organizations: bank's, Equity ETF, Vanguard Energy Locations: technicals, delinquencies
JPMorgan's Dubravko Lakos and Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson both see the end of the market rally. Higher-for-longer Fed interest rates and a potential hard landing for the economy risk dragging equities. And Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson said the latest evidence of a softening market was Nvidia's blowout earnings beat this week and the failed market rally that followed. "I can't think of any better news then what we got from [Nvidia] on Wednesday...and we had a failed rally. "They look for the market to tell them whether it's going to be a hard landing or not.
Persons: JPMorgan's Dubravko Lakos, Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson, Dubravko, Jerome Powell, Wilson, he's Organizations: Service, CNBC, Fed, Bloomberg, Nvidia Locations: Wall, Silicon, Jackson Hole , Wyoming
"This is an economy that's stronger than people thought," Invesco strategist Brian Levitt told CNBC Tuesday. He also sees stocks as beginning a "FOMO" rally from now until the end of the year. Brian Levitt is upbeat on the US's economic prospects – and believes the rally that's lifted equities in 2023 still has room to run. "My expectation on what the market is telling us is that this is an economy that's stronger than people thought," Invesco's global market strategist told CNBC on Tuesday. "I would think it's a FOMO rally between here and the end of the year," Levitt said.
Persons: Brian Levitt, , Levit, Levitt, Morgan, Mike Wilson, who's Organizations: CNBC, Service, Reserve Locations: Wall, Silicon
The S&P 500 is riding one of its best years since 1927, thanks to the AI hype. It's only been 10 times since the 1920s that the benchmark index has performed so well, market veteran Jim Bianco said. With price-only S&P 500 data going back to 1927, this year ranks as the tenth best through July 31,"40-year market veteran Jim Bianco said in a tweet. The S&P 500 has jumped nearly 20% this year, defying pessimists like Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson who recently admitted the Wall Street bank was wrong to write off 2023's sizzling stock-market rally. As the index continues its ascent, analysts at JPMorgan predict that a new record high for the S&P 500 "feels inevitable."
Persons: Jim Bianco, Stocks, Dow Jones, OpenAI's, Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson Organizations: Service, Nasdaq, Dow, Federal Reserve, JPMorgan Locations: Wall, Silicon
Apple and Meta stocks have been the key drivers of the Nasdaq 100's July rally. Investor excitement around AI still remains high, helping fuel a sizzling rally in tech stocks. Apple and Meta stocks have surged about 51% and 165%% year-to-date, respectively, with the latter's stunning gains helping boost CEO Mark Zuckerberg's fortunes to $120 billion this year. The two stocks helped fuel the Nasdaq 100's 3.81% advance through July, taking its year-to-date rally to almost 44%. The rally in tech stocks has even taken market bulls by surprise, including Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson.
Persons: Mark Zuckerberg's, OpenAI's ChatGPT, Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson, Wilson Organizations: Apple, Nasdaq, Service, Twitter Locations: Wall, Silicon
'FOMO' rules the stock market now
  + stars: | 2023-08-01 | by ( George Glover | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +2 min
Forget AI, the Fed, and inflation – "FOMO" is now the stock market's dominant force. Bears including Morgan Stanley's top strategist Mike Wilson have abandoned their gloomy forecasts amid signs the breakneck rally could last. download the app Email address By clicking ‘Sign up’, you agree to receive marketing emails from Insider as well as other partner offers and accept our Terms of Service and Privacy PolicyForget artificial intelligence, forget inflation, forget the Fed. But it also marked the month many bears had to wind back their doom-mongering and accept that the surprise 2023 rally might be for real. Their July climbdowns show that after stocks' longest winning streak in two years, FOMO now rules the market.
Persons: Morgan Stanley's, Mike Wilson, that's, Morgan, who's, Scott Chronert, Wilson, FOMO Organizations: Bears, Service, Federal, Citi, Big Tech Locations: Wall, Silicon
Earnings season is underway, and so far results have beaten expectationsBut Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson worries there's weakness lying below the surface. He found 15 high-quality stocks with strong profits to invest in now. Investors are neck-deep in earnings as second quarter reports roll in, and so far the news has been good, but not great. In a note to clients from earlier in the week, Morgan Stanley chief US equity strategist Mike Wilson wrote that he anticipates earnings results will be better than Wall Street predicted. Then, they pared the stocks they found down to those with a bullish overweight rating from Morgan Stanley analysts.
Persons: Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson, Julian Emanuel, Morgan Stanley, Mike Wilson, Wilson, Jerome Powell, Rather Organizations: Wall
Despite solid economic data, some Wall Street strategists are sticking with their gloomy outlook for the economy and stocks. But don't count out a decline just yet: "People give up on recession just as it arrives." Get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in business, from Wall Street to Silicon Valley — delivered daily. Société GénéraleEdwards isn't the only bear on Wall Street. And as Edwards highlighted, a decline in profits usually leads to an uptick in layoffs, which could ultimately hurl this economy into a recession.
Persons: Albert Edwards, Greedflation, Edwards, Société Générale Edwards, JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic, Kolanovic, Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson, Wilson Organizations: Service, Survey, Loan, Fed Locations: Wall, Silicon
July 25 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist. BI won't want the rupiah to strengthen too much because exports will suffer, but won't want potential inflation-boosting weakness either. On a year-on-year basis, GDP was expected to have expanded 0.8% in the April-June period, down slightly from 0.9% in January-March. On a quarterly basis, however, Asia's fourth largest economy is expected to have expanded 0.5%, up from 0.3% growth in the first quarter. Here are key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Tuesday:- Indonesia interest rate decision- South Korea GDP (Q2)- Hong Kong trade (June)By Jamie McGeever;Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Jamie McGeever, Dalian Wanda, Monday's, Xi Jinping, Wall, Dow, Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson Organizations: U.S, Garden, Dalian, Communist Party, Bank Indonesia, BI, China, Thomson, Reuters Locations: China, Beijing, Indonesia, South Korea, Asia, Korea, Hong Kong
You don't get the best first-half Nasdaq rally in 40 years simply because the Federal Reserve did this, or the yield curve in the bond market did that. It was almost as if it was prosaic to seek profits, like, "How dare you defy the teachings of the yield curve, you foolish soon-to-be- broke apostate." It was the second move, the second week of March, that told the second tale of the first half: the fall of Silicon Valley Bank. Here we had an out-of-nowhere collapse of a well-known seemingly well-run bank that ran afoul, again, of the yield curve. No company could rival Club stocks Apple (AAPL), Alphabet (GOOGL), Amazon (AMZN), Microsoft and Meta Platforms (META) — nice metamorphous there and Tesla , not a Club name.
Persons: William Jennings Bryan, Gandhi, Bud, Altman, Sam Altman, Jensen Huang, Jensen, mutt, Cezanne, Monet, Shakespeare's Henry IV, Carl Quintanilla, David Faber, da, Lisa's, Wendy's, Scylla, Charybdis, ChatGPT, haut, Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson, aren't, They've, isn't, Goldman Sachs, Tesla, Didn't, Freddie, Lehman, Jerome Powell, We've, it's, Eli Lilly, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim, Mad Organizations: Nasdaq, Federal Reserve, Intel, The New York Times, Veterans, Club, Microsoft, Nvidia, Globe Theatre, Silicon Valley Bank, Fed, Apple, Meta, RCA, US Steel, Washington Mutual, AIG, IBM, Jim Cramer's Charitable, CNBC, NYSE Locations: America, Philadelphia, OpenAI, Oz, Queens, mull, Ithaca, Weimar, Silicon, Republic, Valley, Delray , Florida, Alleghany, China
Morgan Stanley believes a rapid stock market pullback is imminent. "S & P 500 is at risk of a near-term drawdown." Here are the risks Wilson references: Consensus earnings expectations that are much too high given the deteriorating economic environment. Wilson's fourth quarter S & P 500 target is 3,900, or 10% lower from its Friday close. The strategist is more optimistic about next year, seeing the S & P 500 rebounding to 4,200 in the first half of 2024.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, Mike Wilson, Wilson, Michael Bloom Organizations: Bank, CNBC
Stocks are once again in a bull market, with the S&P 500 now up more than 20% since October's lows. Nearly all of the recent rally can also be attributed to the index's top 10 stocks, he said. "During the late-90s tech bubble, over one-third of returns came from these mega-cap stocks," Wool said. "In the recent bull run, by contrast, almost the entire market return was accounted for by just ten companies' performance." A 15% decline would put the S&P 500 at 3,800.
Persons: Stocks, Rayliant's Phillip Wool, Wool, Phillip Wool, Solita, Louis, , Lauren Goodwin, Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson, it's, Morgan Stanley's Wilson, Piper Sandler's Michael Kantrowitz Organizations: UBS, LPL Financial, Conference, Federal Reserve Bank of St, Louis The Conference, Wool, Treasury, Federal Reserve, New York Life Investments, CME Group
If you missed yesterday's Federal Reserve decision — and how the market reacted — you've come to the right place. In this March 21, 2018, file photo, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speaks following the Federal Open Market Committee meeting in Washington. The Federal Reserve releases minutes from the March meeting of its policymakers on Wednesday, April 11. US stock futures edge lower early Thursday after the Federal Reserve paused rate hikes but hinted there were more to come. The housing market is so tight right now because 90% of homeowners are already locked into low mortgage rates.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Carolyn Kaster, it'll, there's, Powell, Dow Jones, Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson, Wilson, it's, Martin Puddy, that's, Elon Musk's, Goldman Sachs, Musk, JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic, Max Adams, Nathan Rennolds Organizations: Federal, Federal Reserve, Bank, Fed, Bank of America Locations: Washington, Silicon, insider.com, Beijing, China, Detroit, New York, London
Historically, a median pullback in earnings would mean a 15-20% drop in the S&P 500. The Bureau of Labor Statistics announced on June 2 that the US labor market added 339,000 jobs in May — more than economists had expected. Historically, the Fed tightening cycle takes 18 – 24 months to impact the labor market." Madison Hoff/InsiderHistory shows a recession would mean a rough ride ahead for the stock market, Goodwin said. The median S&P 500 price target among major Wall Street strategists is 4,000, which is 7% lower than current levels.
Persons: Lauren Goodwin, Goodwin, Madison Hoff, Michael Kantrowitz, Piper Sandler, Piper Sandler Piper Sandler, it's, Kantrowitz, Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson, David Rosenberg, , Louis Organizations: York Life Investments, Labor Statistics, New York Life Investments, Rosenberg Research, Federal Reserve Bank of St
Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson says investors are wrongly betting on a Fed pivot in 2023. Wilson said defensive areas of the market are the best place to be right now. For example, Wilson recommends investors stay in defensive sectors, like healthcare, consumer staples, and utilities. Defensive stocks tend to perform better than their cyclical counterparts in down economic environments. Another way to stay defensive, Wilson said, is to look to companies with stable and quality earnings.
Persons: Morgan, Mike Wilson, Wilson, Morgan Stanley's, Morgan Stanley Organizations: US, Federal Reserve
A strange year: Halfway through, there is a wide difference of opinion on earnings Strategists analyze the macroeconomy to come up with an estimate for corporate earnings. They analyze individual company performance to come up with earnings estimates, which are then aggregated into an overall estimate by agencies like FactSet or Refinitiv. The S & P 500 reported $218 in earnings in 2022, according to Refinitiv. This highlights the difference between analysts and strategists: Analysts have models for earnings of individual companies, not the macroeconomy as strategists do. However, in this case, their reticence to slash earnings estimates in expectation of an imminent recession or a banking crisis has proved to be correct.
Persons: Morgan, Mike Wilson, Wilson, Goldman Sachs, Jan Hatzius, Mike Wilson's, John Stoltzfus, Oppenheimer, David Kostin, Brian Belski, Jonathan Golub, Lori Calvasina, Savita Subramanian, Chris Harvey, Ed Clissold, Ned Davis, Hatzius Organizations: Here's, BMO, Credit, RBC, Wells, Bloomberg, Bank Locations: U.S
Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson is sticking with his bearish call for a tactical correction despite the recent rally driven by technology stocks. The widely followed strategist stood by his base case for the S & P 500 to finish 2023 at 3,900, about 9% below Friday's close of 4,282.37. Wilson's forecast is well below the average year-end forecast of 4,157 from Wall Street strategists, according to CNBC Pro's market strategist survey , which rounds up the top 15 strategists' predictions. The S & P 500 has gained more than 2% this month alone, pushing its 2023 gains to nearly 12%. "We don't think the emergence of these factors negates our tactical downside call as we see 2023 earnings facing significant headwinds," Wilson said.
Persons: Morgan, Mike Wilson, Wilson, he's, CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Wall Street, CNBC, Nasdaq
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